コロナ感染者数が激増している。

第一波の時よりも多い感染者人数だ。　( これは　ヨーロッパでも同じだけど。。。)

友人がwhatsappに送ってきた転送メッセージを一読したら、マレーシアの名だたる主要企業の決算状況/財務内容の悪化が書いてある。　

なんと、超優良企業(ドル箱)のペトロナスも含まれている。

暗い内容だ。これじゃ、マレーシア経済全体への影響が心配だ。

なんて経済評論家みたいなことを書いたが、個人的には、なんと言っても、今後の為替レートへの影響が気にかかるのだ。

マレーシアの銀行に預けてある預金を　今後　(将来の撤退時に)　円貨に戻して　日本に送金したら　多大の為替ロスになってしまった　なんて事態になったなら　大ショックだ。

( それなら　今の段階から　すこしづつ分散して　日本に資金送金してしまうべきか。)

他方、こう考えることもできるかも知れない。

1) コロナ禍のもたらす経済への影響は　マレーシアに限定されず、世界共通だ。

2) もし　日本円/米国ドル　も　マレーシアRMに　並行して　devaluación になれば　為替レートへの影響は中性化する。

3)  慌てて　日本への資金送金をするよりも　しばらく　様子見にして、まずは何よりも　現在の不安定な政権状況がどういう方向性に進むのか、見守るべきか。

政権が不安定な国からは　外資は逃げ出し、新規投資はなくなる。

でも資源国は　自給自足でやっていけるなら　外資に頼らなくともなんとかやっていける。

長期的に見た場合、マレーシアRMと円貨の為替レートはどうなると判断すべきか、実に難しいところだ。

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received from Malaysia

.. . BOMBSHELL – MOTHER OF BAD NEWS FOR MALAYSIA – THE LONG-FORETOLD ECONOMIC DISASTER IS HERE! WHEN EVEN GENTING – ONE OF THE COUNTRY’S BIGGEST TAXPAYERS – IS GOING DOWN, PETRONAS WON’T BE SPARED & WHAT MORE PNB, KHAZANAH, FELDA, LTAT & OTHER GLCs – RETRENCHMENTS & BANKRUPTCIES ARE HERE
Politics | October 12, 2020 by | 0 Comments

You know the time is really bad when new stalls spring up like mushrooms in your neighbourhood. The sight of stalls selling “nasi lemak”, fruits, homemade buns and cakes, cookies, and even face masks by the road side to earn some extra money could only mean one thing – people were struggling to make ends meet. And it could only get worse.

If you think the worst was over because a nationwide lockdown, declared on March 18, had been lifted, think again. Whether the lockdown – MCO (movement control order) – was a mistake is debatable. Exactly why was it justifiable for a lockdown in March when the daily cases spiked to 190 cases, but the same lockdown is not required now despite a spike of 691 new cases?

Either backdoor Prime Minister Muhyiddin had made a huge mistake seven months ago by sending the country’s economy to a screeching halt in favour of saving lives, or he is making a deadly mistake now by allowing infections and deaths to escalate in favour of saving the economy. But he can’t deny that his coups – “Sheraton Coup” and “Sabah Coup” – were responsible in both cases.

While the inexperienced backdoor government could be forgiven for screwing up the economy by applying the wrong strategy – killing a fly with a sledgehammer – in containing the spread of Covid-19 back in March, the same power-hungry government certainly cannot be forgiven for launching its second coup to snatch power in Sabah, leading to the “Third Wave” of the pandemic now.

With the Coronavirus new infection cases skyrocket to 3-digit thanks to arrogant ministers and politicians who ignored health procedures, business and economy, which were already struggling to mount a meaningful growth, have gone from bad to worse. In fact, it’s not an exaggeration to suggest that Muhyiddin government is fast losing control as a new wave of clusters of Covid-19 spread like wildfire.

To make matters worse, the six months loan repayment moratorium on all bank loans for individuals and SMEs had expired on 30 September 2020. In essence, business owners and wage earners have to resume loan repayments this month (October). The moratorium had allowed millions of people and businesses to enjoy temporary relief for loans totalling RM66.6 billion (as of July 31).

Mega Merger - Bank Negara - Central Bank

Of the RM66.6 billion, business sector utilised RM23.3 billion, while the public used RM43.3 billion. A 3-month “targeted moratorium extension” for individuals who have lost their jobs and are yet to find new employment has since been announced. Those who were still employed, but had undergone pay cuts would have their monthly loan payments reduced in line with their new salaries – depending on type of loan.

Make no mistake. The moratorium was merely a temporary measure to allow a “delay” in loan payments from April 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020. The existing monthly interest charged for the loan amount will continue to add up (the decision to compound interest was later removed by all major banks after major complaints). Hence borrowers still have to pay, one way or another.

There have been calls for the government to extend the loan moratorium to everyone again until the year end. A delay bankruptcy proceedings against borrowers who failed to service their loans has also been proposed. The Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers (FMM) has even urged the government to consider extending the loan moratorium period for another six months to March 2021.

But the backdoor government argued that the banking sector was suffering from RM1.06 billion losses per month, or a whopping RM6.4 billion loss following the six-month loan moratorium period. That was as good as crippling bank’s capacities to give new loans worth up to RM79 billion. However, pulling the plug on borrowers to safeguard banks could have dangerous effects.

While the clueless and incompetent Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul has been telling all and sundry that Malaysia’s financial ecosystem remains resilient and economy activity is improving (what else could he say), the government’s optimistic view should be taken with a pinch of salt. The six months of honeymoon – loan moratorium relief – is over and the reality is brutal on the ground.

The real retrenchment has just begun. The latest big gun that has announced layoffs is AirAsia. The low-cost airline confirmed the retrenchment of 10% of their 24,000 employees last week. This is the company’s second round of job cuts where 2,400 employees were terminated. In early June, 250 of AirAsia’s staff were axed due to the Coronavirus pandemic.

Another airline – Malaysia Airlines – could be shut down if its restructuring plan, which is in last leg of negotiation with its lessors, fails. The national airline, notorious for its financial problems for as long as one can remember due to incompetence and political interference, urgently requires a fresh cash injection from shareholder, state fund Khazanah Nasional Berhad (KNB), to keep it afloat over the next 18 months.

But airline isn’t the only sector that is cutting jobs by the thousands. Travel, leisure, retail, hospitality and even property sectors will start contributing to job losses at an industrial scale. Survey shows about 60% of Malaysian workers do not have the means to raise even RM1,000 for household expenses, if they were to suddenly lose their jobs due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Thanks to power-hungry PM Muhyiddin, who won the state of Sabah, but in the process spread the virus from the Borneo state to nationwide, almost all major shopping malls – Suria KLCC, Mid Valley, The Garden, 1-Utama, Sunway Pyramid and Bangsar Shopping Centre – have seen more new cases of Covid-19. Banks, restaurants and a mosque at the Subang Jaya airport are among a long list of places infected.

Unlike 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis, the backdoor government of Muhyiddin will find it hard to milk money from the national oil company Petronas to bail out large companies such as Malaysia Airlines. The reliance on Petronas to provide financial lifelines will be limited this time round simply because the company itself is in financial trouble.

Petronas, long known as the cash cow of Malaysia, has posted a quarterly net loss of RM21 billion for the period ending June 30 against a profit of RM14.7 billion in the same quarter last year. To add salt to injury, other large state-owned investment companies were plagued with massive debt themselves, further limiting the government’s ability to carry out rescues.

For example, Khazanah Holdings, the sovereign wealth fund of Malaysia whose strategic stakes included power utility Tenaga Nasional, telecommunications giant Telekom Malaysia, property group UEM Sunrise, telco operator Axiata Group and of course, national carrier Malaysia Airlines, had registered a net debt of RM57.6 billion as at the end of March this year.

Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB), one of the largest fund management companies set up in 1978 to realise the government’s New Economic Policy (NEP), a controversial racist and discrimination policy, too was not doing well. Despite having conglomerate Sime Darby and auto giant UMW under its stable, PNB posted a combined net debt of RM23.8 billion.

Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (LTAT) was once considered among the country’s best-managed pension funds, producing a stable annual dividend of 6% to 8% and backed by a strong balance sheet for years. But after an investigative audit last year (2019), the armed forces pension fund was actually having financial mismanagement and irregularities.

The new government of Pakatan Harapan discovered that LTAT had been overstating its assets, fabricating transactions and was paying more dividends than it earned. It was a humiliating scandal involving (former) CEO Lodin Wok Kamaruddin, whose close relationship with former Prime Minister Najib Razak saw him as the former chairman of 1MDB.

LTAT’s crown jewel, Boustead Group, controls four publicly listed companies – Affin Bank Bhd, Boustead Plantations Bhd, Boustead Heavy Industries Corp Bhd (BHIC) and Pharmaniaga Bhd. Yet, due to mismanagement, LTAT registered net debt of RM7.8 billion. Khazanah, PNB and EPF (Employee Provident Fund) are the biggest GLICs (government-linked investment company).

Clearly, most of the government-linked investment companies were in deep financial trouble themselves. Even casino tycoon Lim Kok Tay of the Genting Group, one of the richest men in Malaysia, has plunged into financial trouble due to Coronavirus. Billionaire Lim stunned investors last month when his cruise operator Genting Hong Kong announced that it would suspend all payments to creditors.

Formerly known as Star Cruises, Genting Hong Kong owed a total of US$3.4 billion as of July 31, creating a cash crunch that the company blamed on the Coronavirus pandemic. The industry has been badly crippled by lockdown measures and travel curbs across the globe. But financial troubles were not only confined in Hong Kong.

Retrenchment back home saw some 3,000 jobs slashed at Genting Malaysia Berhad – represents about 15% of its 20,000 employees. Prior to the job cuts, the company had implemented company-wide pay cuts in April, the first of its kind since the company was formed in 1965, suggesting the level of serious economic storm brought by the Coronavirus.

Almost half of manufacturing companies said they are planning to cut costs by retrenching up to 30% of their workers by the end of this year. Even Petronas plans to cut salaries of its employees despite assurance there won’t be any retrenchment, at least for now. As a new wave of Covid-19

以上　(10/25 記)